<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="1"?>
<pra datepubli="2020-11-20" lastupdate="2020-11-20">
 <uuid>069aaddb-4a21-4116-8177-42c68c54020c</uuid>
 <country>EPPO</country>
 <datepra>2020-08-29</datepra>
 <title>A Model to Predict the Expansion of Trioza erytreae throughout the Iberian Peninsula Using a Pest Risk Analysis Approach</title>
 <description><![CDATA[<p>Benhadi-Mar&iacute;n, J.; Fereres, A.; Pereira, J.A. A Model to Predict the Expansion of&nbsp;<em>Trioza erytreae</em> throughout the Iberian Peninsula Using a Pest Risk Analysis Approach.&nbsp;<em>Insects</em> <strong>2020</strong>,&nbsp;<em>11</em>, 576. </p><p>The African citrus psyllid <em>Trioza erytreae</em> is a natural vector of&nbsp;<em>Candidatus</em> <em>liberibacter</em> spp., the causal agent of the &ldquo;citrus greening disease&rdquo;. Citrus greening has not yet been detected in Europe; however, it represents a serious threat to citrus production. In this work, we parameterize a series of models to predict the expected spread of&nbsp;<em>T. erytreae</em> in the Iberian Peninsula since its introduction in 2014. Although&nbsp;<em>T. erytreae</em> was first detected in northwestern Spain, its detection and rapid spread around Porto (in Portugal) shortly afterward suggests a second entry point or transport of infested plant material from Spain. Among the developed models, the one that covered the known spread of&nbsp;<em>T. erytreae</em> best after 5 years was the kernel model with two simultaneous entry points. The invaded area predicted beyond the observed spread strongly suggests a physical and/or bioclimatic barrier preventing further spread of&nbsp;<em>T. erytreae</em>. Further development and refinement of models are crucial to accurately predicting the potential future spread of&nbsp;<em>T. erytreae&nbsp;</em>throughout the Iberian Peninsula. Accurate models will aid the development of successful management and regulatory programs.</p>]]></description>
 <author id="24">
  <fullname>EPPO Secretariat</fullname>
  <institute id="14">Other PRAs - Scientific articles and research projects</institute>
 </author>
 <tags>
  <tag>article</tag>
  <tag>modelling</tag>
 </tags>
 <organisms>
  <organism eppocode="TRIZER">Trioza erytreae</organism>
 </organisms>
 <praarea>
  <area isocode="9A">EPPO</area>
 </praarea>
 <files>
  <file type="1" size="2724895">
   <title>insects-11-00576-v2.pdf</title>
   <url>https://pra.eppo.int/getfile/f0ec257a-8fa1-4d74-b1e9-540ae0e962b5</url>
  </file>
 </files>
</pra>
