<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="1"?>
<pra datepubli="2024-04-08" lastupdate="2024-04-08">
 <uuid>073fb65b-f299-4bb7-aaa0-2712b9d916a8</uuid>
 <country>EPPO</country>
 <datepra>2024-02-01</datepra>
 <title>Production vulnerability to wheat blast disease under climate change</title>
 <description><![CDATA[<p>Pequeno DN, Ferreira TB, Fernandes JM, Singh PK, Pavan W, Sonder K, Robertson R, Krupnik TJ, Erenstein O, Asseng S &nbsp;(2024) Production vulnerability to wheat blast disease under climate change. Nature Climate Change <strong>14</strong>, 178&ndash;183 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01902-2</p><p><br></p><p>Wheat blast is a devastating disease caused by the fungal pathogen <em>Magnaporthe oryzae</em> pathotype <em>Triticum</em> that has spread to both neighbouring and distant countries following its emergence in Brazil in the 1980s. Under climate change conditions, wheat blast is predicted to spread primarily in tropical regions. Here we coupled a wheat crop simulation model with a newly developed wheat blast model, to provide quantitative global estimates of wheat blast vulnerability under current and future climates. Under current climatic conditions, 6.4 million hectares of arable land is potentially vulnerable to wheat blast. A more humid and warmer climate in the future (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) is likely to increase the area suitable for wheat blast infection, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, and reduce global wheat production by 69 million tons per year (13% decrease) by mid-century. Impacts of climate change could be further exacerbated and food security problems increased</p>]]></description>
 <author id="24">
  <fullname>EPPO Secretariat</fullname>
  <institute id="14">Other PRAs - Scientific articles and research projects</institute>
 </author>
 <tags>
  <tag>article</tag>
  <tag>climate change</tag>
  <tag>climate suitability</tag>
  <tag>modelling</tag>
 </tags>
 <organisms>
  <organism eppocode="PYRIOR">Pyricularia oryzae</organism>
 </organisms>
 <hosts>
  <host eppocode="TRZAX">Triticum aestivum subsp. aestivum</host>
 </hosts>
 <files>
  <file type="1" size="7637107">
   <title>s41558-023-01902-2.pdf</title>
   <url>https://pra.eppo.int/getfile/59a29c72-5d42-4327-8522-997390ca1d28</url>
  </file>
 </files>
</pra>
