Trypophloeus klimeschi Eggers (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) causes substantial mortality to Populus alba var. pyramidalis individuals in Xinjiang, China. Currently, the number of host trees killed by this bark beetle is increasing. Climate change has exacerbated this problem, causing its range to expand. Here, using Maxent, we simulated its distributions in the 2030s and 2050s under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The distribution expanded the most under RCP 8.5. It is large enough to pose substantial challenges for forest managers across northern China. Our study contributes to the construction and protection of shelter forests in Northern China because we present novel evidence of the potential impacts of climate change on forestry.