8ed5115e-9042-47d0-9c5b-804c08e977de Sweden 2026-03-27 Questions related to the risk of Fusarium circinatum to Sweden Previously, it was assessed that the conditions, especially the climatic conditions, were not suitable for establishment of F. circinatum in Sweden based on information included in the EFSA pest survey card (EFSA et al. 2020). However, new information included in a quick risk assessment for Sweden conducted for the pathogen using the FinnPRIO risk ranking model suggests that the earlier conclusion may need to be revised (Boberg & Björklund 2024, unpublished FinnPRIO assessment sheet).


SLU Risk Assessment of Plant Pests was requested by the Swedish Board of Agriculture to provide a more detailed analysis to support their decision on whether F. circinatum should be part of regular surveys in Sweden. Furthermore, the FinnPRIO assessment also raised questions related to the level of susceptibility of Pinus sylvestris and Picea abies to infection by F. circinatum and the associated potential impacts.

The following specific questions were investigated and assessed in this report:
(i) How suitable is the current and future climate in Sweden for the establishment of F. circinatum considering conditions both in the field and in forest nurseries?
(ii) How susceptible is Pinus sylvestris to infection by F. circinatum?
(iii) How susceptible is Picea abies to infection by F. circinatum?

Furthermore, based on the results and conclusions of the questions above, we assessed the potential for establishment of F. circinatum in Sweden within the coming 20 years and identified the potential area of establishment.

]]> Johanna Boberg Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences climate change climate suitability host susceptibility Fusarium circinatum Picea abies Pinus sylvestris Sweden boberg-j-et-al-20260415.pdf https://pra.eppo.int/getfile/2d0490d6-e4d2-4601-878f-2def8321914c