Emerald ash borer (EAB) is thought to have arrived in North America and European Russia at least 10 years prior to detection. Despite heightened awareness that EAB could invade Great Britain (GB), detection in the early stages of establishment is difficult, and initial symptoms might be mistaken for Chalara ash dieback. Our results suggest that if partial resistance to EAB in Fraxinus excelsior does not significantly dampen EAB population dynamics, then EAB could establish and spread across large parts of southern England within a relatively short time period; however, further northern spread may be limited by the relatively cool climate.