This document is one of the 28 Pest Reports produced by the EFSA Working Group on EU Priority Pests under task 3 of the mandate M-2017-0136. It supports the corresponding Pest Datasheet published together on Zenodo and applies the methodology described in the Methodology Report published on the EFSA Journal (EFSA, 2019a).This Pest Report has five sections. In addition to this introduction, a conclusion and references, there are two key sections, sections 2 and 3.
Section 2 first summarises the relevant information on the pest related to its biology and taxonomy. The second part of Section 2 provides a review of the host range and the hosts present in the EU in order to select the hosts that will be evaluated in the expert elicitations on yield and quality losses. The third part of Section 2 identifies the area of potential distribution in the EU based on the pest’s current distribution and assessments of the area where hosts are present, the climate is suitable for establishment and transient populations may be present. The fourth part of Section 2 assesses the extent to which the presence of the pest in the EU is likely to result in increased treatments of plant protection products. The fifth part of section 2 reviews additional potential effects due to increases in mycotoxin contamination or the transmission of pathogens.
In Section 3, the expert elicitations that assess potential yield losses, quality losses, the spread rate and the time to detection are described in detail. For each elicitation, the general and specific assumptions are outlined, the parameters to be estimated are selected, the question is defined, the evidence is reviewed and uncertainties are identified. The elicited values for the five quantiles are then given and compared to a fitted distribution both in a table and with graphs to show more clearly, for example, the magnitude and distribution of uncertainty. A short conclusion is then provided
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