Rating of the likelihood of establishment in field crops in other European countries is on moderate level.  This is mainly because of many host plants and wild plants occurrence. Some experts, entomologists, suggest that agrophage will not survive winter in PRA area even despite reports of pest presence in other European countries and potentially adequate environmental conditions in Poland.

Signal reports from Germany, England, France, Croatia suggest that pest may be transfer with plant material and spread very quickly in field crops. EFSA suggests that probability of establishment of Thrips setosus populations in Europa (including Poland) may increase alog with climate changes- milder and shorter winter (EFSA 2012). Establishment of Thrips setosus in protected conditions is rated as low.

Rating of the likelihood of entry: High (Pest may be transfer with soil, plants or parts of plants)

Rating of the likelihood of establishment outdoors and in protected conditions: Low (Pest will not be able to survive the winter in PRA area)

Rating of the likelihood of spread: Moderate (only if pest will be able to survive in PRA area)

Rating of the likelihood of impact without phytosanitary measures: High (only if pest will be able to survive in PRA area)

Potential risk or losses caused by Thrips setosus are low because of climatic conditions in PRA area at the moment. The assessment should be repeated in case of climatic changes.

Phytosanitary measures:

·  systematic monitoring of imported plants/soil

·  import only certified material from pest-free areas