The goal of the present analysis was to assess the probability of entry of Bx with import of bark from Portugal into the Netherlands. The probability of re-infestation of heat-treated bark was assessed and, in addition, the probabilities that Bx-infested bark would come into contact with a host plant and a plant becomes infested. Furthermore, the probability of entry of Bx with import of heat-treated bark was compared with the probability of entry of Bx through other pathways.