In Bulgarian with English abstract.

Bulgaria is a traditional agricultural country, where various types of fruit crops are grown on relatively large areas, such as apple (Malus domestica), sour cherry (Prunus avium), plum (P. domestica) and peach (P. persica), and vegetable crops, such as pepper (Capsicum spp.), cucumber (Cucumis sativus), tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) and eggplant (Solanum melongena), which are hosts of the oriental fruit fly (Bactrocera dorsalis).

Bactrocera dorsalis originates from the tropical and subtropical regions of Asia. Due to the high adaptability of the pest to different host plants and the high reproductive potential, the species has spread widely in Southeast Asia and Africa. At present, there is no evidence that Bactrocera dorsalis is present in the analyzed threatened area, but recently the pest has been intercepted in the European Union (EU) - France, Italy and Slovakia, although there is currently no evidence that it has established itself there.

Climate models indicate that the southernmost regions of Europe may have ecoclimatic conditions suitable for the establishment of Bactrocera dorsalis, but Bulgaria as a whole falls into an area with unsuitable ecoclimatic conditions for establishment. In the event of a possible entry into the country, the risk of establishment of B. dorsalis is low, since the species would not be able to survive at temperatures below 10°C. Given climate change, which predicts a global temperature increase of 2°C and an increase in summer precipitation by 20 mm, as well as the warming trend and the forecast for milder winters in the coming decades in Bulgaria, it is assumed that the conditions in the southernmost regions of the country (Sandanski–Petrich Valley) would be suitable for the establishment of shortterm outbreaks of the species.

If Bactrocera dorsalis becomes established and spreads in this region, even for only one growing season, it could cause potential losses around the points/places of adult fly emergence, which could initiate a generation of the pest in neighboring orchards and vegetable gardens.

Although the risk of introduction the species in the country is medium, it is unlikely that the negative effects of this entry would be significant. This is due to the fact that the pest is sensitive to low temperatures and would develop a short-term generation only in the southernmost regions of the country with a transitional-continental climate with a Mediterranean influence. However, the pest can have an economic impact on the cost of production (yield from orchards and vegetable gardens), which will increase due to the need for additional application of plant protection products (PPPs), undertaking and implementing preventive and phytosanitary measures in the gardens.