Khfif K, Ndiyae A, Frimpong-Anin K, N'guessan AH, Ajiboye TO, Otuka A (2026) Risk Assessment of the fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) invasion of Morocco. Scientific African 31, e03158.

The fall armyworm (FAW) Spodoptera frugiperda, is a polyphagous pest, causing serious economic damage to plant production and consequent social implications in Africa. As FAW is a migratory moth that was first confirmed in western African countries in early 2016, it quickly spread to most African continent. However, no FAW has been found in Morocco so far. In this study, we assessed the migration risk of the FAW to Morocco by applying a trajectory modeling approach to simulate potential flight paths from several locations where the pest is currently established. Our findings indicated that the majority of simulated terminal points originating from the Mauritanian trap site near the Moroccan border were concentrated over the Atlantic Ocean, southern Mauritania, and northern Senegal, with only a few reaching Moroccan territory. The risk of FAW invasion from the south appears low, as the arid desert regions of southern Morocco lack suitable host plants, and the combination of high temperatures and drought stress likely limits the pest’s survival and movement. Therefore, FAW monitoring efforts should be prioritized in areas facing the Canary Islands, where both host plants and favorable climatic conditions exist. Although the primary focus of this study was to assess FAW invasion risk to Morocco, broader wind dynamics across Africa were briefly considered to provide regional context.