Spasov N (2024) Analysis of the phytosanitary risk of the pest Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, 1888 for tree species in Bulgaria. Bulgarian One Health Journal 1(8), 89-105. 

Bulgaria falls into an area with suitable eco-climatic conditions for establishment, i.e. in case of possible penetration into the country, the risk of establishing A. planipennis is high.

Its current distribution in N. America and European Russia, as well as its native range in Asia, suggests that this species can survive winter at temperatures well below freezing. For this reason, low temperatures in winter are not expected to have a negative impact on the establishment and spread of A. planipennis in Bulgaria, since this species has established itself in areas with much lower temperatures than those in the country (for example, the Moscow region). Given the climatic changes in Bulgaria and the trend towards warming in most regions of the country, and the forecast for milder winters in the coming decades, it is assumed that the conditions will be increasingly suitable.

If established and spread, the pest is likely to cause major ecological losses and impacts, as well as some social effects. Long-distance spread will be via human-assisted pathways, and its natural spread will occur, but at a slower rate. In the event of the introduction, establishment and spread of A. planipennis in the country, it could have a negative impact, especially in the areas where the different species of ash are found, and its destruction or containment will be difficult and expensive, and it is unlikely that it would be successful.