CONCLUSION OF PEST RISK ANALYSIS

Endangered area: The endangered areas are glasshouse productions sites that grow tomatoes or other edible and ornamental Solanaceae. 

Probability of entry - High

- The most important pathways are vine tomatoes and propagation material of Solanaceae plants from infested areas in the Mediterranean region, and the carriage equipment associated with these commodities. 

- There is a large trade volume of tomato fruits from infested areas to NL and UK and an unknown trade volume of ornamental Solanaceae. 

- The probability that the organism escapes from fresh market tomatoes in trade and successfully transfers to tomato production places is medium in cases where these companies are separated and high in cases where these activities are done by the same company. 

Probability of establishment - high

- During May - August, temperatures in the Netherlands are high enough for successful development of T. absoluta in the field. 

- In greenhouses with tomato production, T. absoluta can have 9 generations per year. Spread of the pest between greenhouses may occur in spring and summer time. 

Economic impact – high (uncertain) 

- If no specific control measures are applied against the organism, damage to tomato production can be very high, because also fruits can be mined, which may induce unacceptable levels of cosmetic damage. 

- The economic consequences of establishment of the organism for the NL tomato sector can be high: € 5- 25 million/year due to crop losses and € 4 million/year due to pest management in a worst-case scenario. 

- The additional potential economic impact due to disruption of biological control and pollination is likely to be high (uncertain). 

- The limited number of registered active ingredients, combined with the possibility of insecticide resistance could lead to difficulties in pest management of the organism.