EPPO Platform
on PRAs

Evaluation of three assessments from the EFSA Panel on Plant Health quantifying the probability of introduction of a pest into the European Union

Description

Following a request from the National Plant Protection Organization of the Netherlands, the Office for Risk assessment & Research (BuRO) evaluated quantitative assessments of the probability of introduction of three pests into the European Union (EU), Thaumatotibia leucotreta, Citripestis sagittiferella and Elasmopalpus lignosellus, from the Panel on Plant Health of the European Food Safety Authority. This request was put forward because of (i) discrepancies between the outcomes of the qPRAs of T. leucotreta and C. sagittiferella and lack of outbreaks of these pests which could be linked to the pathways assessed and (ii) because of differences in the methodology applied in the three qPRAs. The assessment of T. leucotreta estimates the number of adults that emerge every year from cut roses imported into the EU and the proportion of mated females among these adults. The structure of the model to calculate the number of emerging adults was considered accurate. However, the parameter estimate for the percentage of infested cut roses was considered too high resulting in an overestimation of the number of emerging adults. The estimated proportion of mated females was also considered too high, partly due to an inaccurate calculation method. The title of the risk assessment (Assessment of the probability of introduction of Thaumatotibia leucotreta into the European Union with import of cut roses) indicates that the probability of entry and establishment of T. leucotreta was assessed as ‘introduction’ includes both the entry and establishment of a pest. However, the model actually calculates the number of mated females in regions assessed suitable for establishment but not the number of founder (established) populations. The assessment of C. sagittiferella estimates the number of founder populations per year in the EU through the import of citrus fruit. The model used to estimate this number was not considered accurate and very likely considerably overestimated the true number of founder populations per year. The assessment of E. lignosellus estimates the number of founder populations per year in the EU through the import of asparagus spears. The structure of the model used for this estimation was considered accurate, but some of the parameter estimates were insufficiently substantiated and were considered either too high or too low. Based on the evaluation of the three quantitative pathway assessments, BuRO provides several suggestions to improve the assessment of the probability of introduction of pests in quantitative pest risk assessments.

Hosts

  • Citripestis sagittiferella
  • Elasmopalpus lignosellus
  • Thaumatotibia leucotreta

Files

Type File Size
Pest Risk Analysis Download 1,43MB

PRA Area

  • EU
  • Netherlands
  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Bulgaria
  • Croatia
  • Cyprus
  • Czechia
  • Denmark
  • Estonia
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Hungary
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania
  • Luxembourg
  • Malta
  • Poland
  • Portugal
  • Romania
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • Spain
  • Sweden