Risk of the fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda J.E. Smith) entering Uzbekistan: phytosanitary risk analysis
Description
The thesis assesses the risk of introduction of the fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda), one of the world's most damaging invasive pests, into Uzbekistan using a pest risk analysis (PRA) approach.
After its first outbreaks in Africa in 2016, where potential maize losses were estimated at 8.3–20.6 million t per year in 12 countries, the pest spread across Asia and was recorded in Türkiye in 2022 and in Kerman province of Iran in 2023. It has not been recorded in Uzbekistan and is listed as an absent quarantine pest in the national list and in the EAEU list.
A MaxEnt model identified southern parts of Central Asia, including the Jizzakh area of Uzbekistan, as climatically suitable. Because the species has no diapause and develops from about 12 °C, the main risk for Uzbekistan is seasonal summer invasion of irrigated maize through migration rather than year-round establishment.
The thesis proposes a pheromone-trap early warning network in southern and border regions, training in identification according to EPPO PM 7/124, stricter inspection of produce from southern neighbours, and a country-specific CLIMEX risk model.
Files
| Type | File | Size |
|---|---|---|
| Pest Risk Analysis | Download | 160,56kB |
PRA Area
- Uzbekistan
