Modeling long‐distance dispersal of emerald ash borer in European Russia and prognosis of spread of this pest to neighboring countries within next 5 years
A model based on fat‐tailed kernel corresponds to both negative and positive results of surveys. According to the model, the current range is likely to be restricted to Russia, but probability of detection of the pest in the east of Belarus, Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania by 2022 is 15%–40%.Main conclusions
The forestry services of neighboring countries probably have about 5 years to prepare for the invasion of this pest, but regular surveys are necessary, since the pest can appear at any time. The case considered shows that the simple approach based on a fat‐tailed kernel and just one parameter—pairwise distance between cities—can be used for modeling long‐distance dispersal of alien pests of urban plantations.
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- Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Czech Republic
- North Macedonia
- United Kingdom