A Model to Predict the Expansion of Trioza erytreae throughout the Iberian Peninsula Using a Pest Risk Analysis Approach
Benhadi-Marín, J.; Fereres, A.; Pereira, J.A. A Model to Predict the Expansion of Trioza erytreae throughout the Iberian Peninsula Using a Pest Risk Analysis Approach. Insects 2020, 11, 576.
The African citrus psyllid Trioza erytreae is a natural vector of Candidatus liberibacter spp., the causal agent of the “citrus greening disease”. Citrus greening has not yet been detected in Europe; however, it represents a serious threat to citrus production. In this work, we parameterize a series of models to predict the expected spread of T. erytreae in the Iberian Peninsula since its introduction in 2014. Although T. erytreae was first detected in northwestern Spain, its detection and rapid spread around Porto (in Portugal) shortly afterward suggests a second entry point or transport of infested plant material from Spain. Among the developed models, the one that covered the known spread of T. erytreae best after 5 years was the kernel model with two simultaneous entry points. The invaded area predicted beyond the observed spread strongly suggests a physical and/or bioclimatic barrier preventing further spread of T. erytreae. Further development and refinement of models are crucial to accurately predicting the potential future spread of T. erytreae throughout the Iberian Peninsula. Accurate models will aid the development of successful management and regulatory programs.
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