Probability of entry 

The insect is already found in France near the Italian border. It is also present in Italy. It could be reintroduced by the same pathway(s) that allowed its first introduction. Pathways of entry related to the commercial movements of plants have been identified. The overall probability of entry is therefore considered to be high, with a low uncertainty. 

Probability of establishment 

The probability of establishment is considered to be high, with a low uncertainty, given that the insect has already managed to become established in areas that are cooler than its areas of origin, with characteristics equivalent to certain areas of France. The probability of establishment outside the Mediterranean coastal region is probably low, given the known biology of X. compactus 

Probability of spread

The probability of spread along the Mediterranean coastal region of France is considered to be high, with a low uncertainty. In just a few years, the insect has spread along a large part of the Tyrrhenian coast and is currently found in several adjacent Italian regions (Campania, Lazio and Tuscany). 

Probability of possible impact if plant health measures are not taken It is difficult to assess the potential consequences if plant health measures are not taken, firstly, because of the still limited information on the host plants targeted by X. compactus in the PRA area, and secondly, given the lack of available data on the climatic tolerance of the insect and its ability to extend beyond coastal regions with a Csa climate, according to the Köppen-Geiger classification.