This Pest Report has five sections. In addition to this introduction, a conclusion and references, there are two key sections, sections 2 and 3.

Section 2 first summarises the relevant information on the pest related to its biology and taxonomy. The second part of Section 2 provides a review of the host range and the hosts present in the EU in order to select the hosts that will be evaluated in the expert elicitations on yield and quality losses. The third part of Section 2 identifies the area of potential distribution in the EU based on the pest’s current distribution and  assessments  of  the  area  where  hosts  are  present,  the  climate  is  suitable  for  establishment  and transient  populations  may  be  present.  The  fourth  part  of  Section  2  assesses  the  extent  to  which  the presence of the pest in the EU is likely to result in increased treatments of plant protection products. The fifth part of section 2 reviews additional potential effects due to increases in mycotoxin contamination or the transmission of pathogens. 

In Section 3, the expert elicitations that assess potential yield losses, quality losses, the spread rate and the time to detection are described in detail. For each elicitation, the general and specific assumptions are  outlined,  the  parameters  to  be  estimated  are  selected,  the  question  is  defined,  the  evidence  is reviewed  and  uncertainties  are  identified.  The  elicited  values  for  the  five  quantiles  are  then  given  and compared to a fitted distribution both in a table and with graphs to show more clearly, for example, the magnitude and distribution of uncertainty. A short conclusion is then provided