Aidoo OF, Souza PG, Silva RS, Júnior PA, Picanço MC, Kyerematen R, Sètamou M, Ekesi S, Borgemeister C (2022) Predicting the potential global distribution of an invasive alien pest Trioza erytreae (Del Guercio)(Hemiptera: Triozidae). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-23213-w

The impact of invasive alien pests on agriculture, food security, and biodiversity conservation has been worsened by climate change caused by the rising earth’s atmospheric greenhouse gases. The African citrus triozid, Trioza erytreae (Del Guercio; Hemiptera: Triozidae), is an invasive pest of all citrus species. It vectors the phloem-limited bacterium “Candidatus Liberibacter africanus”, a causal agent of citrus greening disease or African Huanglongbing (HLB). Understanding the global distribution of T. erytreae is critical for surveillance, monitoring, and eradication programs. Therefore, we combined geospatial and physiological data of T. erytreae to predict its global distribution using the CLIMEX model. The model’s prediction matches T. erytreae present-day distribution and shows that parts of the Mediterranean region have moderate (0 < EI < 30) to high (EI > 30) suitability for the pest. The model predicts habitat suitability in the major citrus-producing countries, such as Mexico, Brazil, China, India, and the USA. In the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B and A2 scenarios, the model predicts a reduction in habitat suitability from the current time to 2070. The findings show that global citrus production will continue to be threatened by T. erytreae. However, our study provides relevant information for biosecurity and risk assessment.