This report presents the results of the assessment of the likelihood of Aromia bungii establishing in Finland, considering the availability of host plants and the suitability of climate. Additionally, the host status of Prunus padus for A. bungii was evaluated.

Based on a literature review, P. padus is a confirmed host of A. bungii with no uncertainty. Suitable host plants for A. bungii are available throughout Finland, both in natural habitats and urban areas.

Winter and summer temperatures were identified as critical factors for the establishment of A. bungii in Finland. The suitability of the winter temperature was assessed by comparing the average temperature of the coldest month and the USDA plant hardiness zones across Finland with those in the pest’s native range. The suitability of summer temperatures was assessed by comparing annual growing degree days (GDD) in Finland with those in the pest’s native range.

The results indicate that winter temperatures are suitable for A. bungii throughout Finland. However, summer temperature appears to be unsuitable in the northernmost parts of the country.

The greatest source of uncertainty in the assessment is the annual GDD that A. bungii requires for successful establishment.